Are we overcomplicating evidence for scale?

We are collecting more and more data, while learning less and less from it.

Insights on:

Emma Colenbrander
Managing Director

March 5, 2026
Share Post

Two recent articles gave me pause about how we think about evidence for scale.

One, Measuring More and Learning Less by Marco Di Natale in Stanford Social Innovation Review, argues that organisations are collecting more and more data but not necessarily building the capacity to learn from it.

Another, from Root Capital in NextBillion, warns that we’re increasingly mistaking satisfaction and perception data for real evidence of impact.

Taken together, they raise an uncomfortable possibility: We may be over-investing in measurement, while underinvesting in learning.

And sometimes we may be measuring the wrong things altogether.

The question organisations keep asking

At Spring Impact, one question comes up repeatedly:

“What counts as enough evidence to scale?”

There’s rarely a single answer. But there are a few signals we look for.

1. Credible proof the theory of change holds

You don’t need perfect evidence, but you do need credible proof that the solution actually results in the outcomes it intends to have, along with early signs that those outcomes hold in different contexts.

It gives confidence that you’re not scaling something ineffective.

2. Clarity on why it works

Knowing that people like a product or a service is not the same as knowing it creates impact.

Organisations that scale successfully usually understand the mechanisms behind their results.

They know which elements are essential (or as we call them, core) and which can adapt as they grow.

3. Evidence it can be delivered consistently and affordably

A solution might work beautifully in one place but fall apart if it is heavily reliant on a single source of funding or when contexts shift.

Before scaling, organisations need evidence that the model can be delivered reliably, at a cost others can realistically sustain.

4. Learning systems strong enough to improve as you grow

No evidence base is ever complete.

What matters is whether the organisation has the culture and systems to keep learning as it scales.

The real test of evidence is not just what you know today, but how quickly you can learn tomorrow.

“Enough” evidence depends on risk

Enough evidence means having enough confidence to justify the risk of beginning to scale.

That threshold should depend on three things:

the scale ambition
the cost of being wrong
who bears the risk

A thought to take away

More complexity doesn’t necessarily equal more impact.

In the race to prove impact, it’s tempting to add more dashboards, more indicators and more studies. But sometimes more measurement can dilute our ability to focus on the insights that actually matter.

The organisations that scale most effectively are not the ones measuring the most, but the ones measuring what matters. And we have to accept that what we measure may change as our assumptions evolve based on new insights.

The key is having a learning culture.

A tool to help you

As part of developing our new masterclass series, Funding for Scale, we explored what scale-focused, unrestricted funders actually look for when assessing impact, including the kinds of evidence and cost-effectiveness data that matter most.

We’ve turned those insights into a free tool that helps you right-size your evidence to where you are on your scaling journey, so you’re not over-investing in proof points you don’t yet need, or under-prepared for the ones you do.

Grab your copy.